Dortmund, 22–25 October
The European Championship is approaching, and there are a few players I’m interested in here. I’m not rushing to back them before the draw is settled, though. Picking the right player is only half the job. We still need the right price.
The European Tour rankings decide the field and seedings, which makes this a slightly different tournament to the usual majors. A big name doesn’t automatically get a comfortable route, and that’s something I want to look at before committing.
These are my three early betting angles.
Bet 1: Luke Humphries to win the tournament
Target price: 5/1 or bigger
Provisional stake: 1 point win
Humphries is the first player I’d look at for the outright.
He came within one leg of winning this tournament last year, losing the final 11–10 to Gian van Veen. That doesn’t mean he’s owed a win, but it does show he can put a full tournament together in Dortmund.
More recently, he reached the Swiss Darts Trophy final, where Clayton beat him 8–4. I wouldn’t get too carried away with that defeat. Reaching another final is a positive, even if he couldn’t finish the job.
What interests me is whether the market gives us enough of a gap between Humphries and Littler. Littler will understandably attract plenty of money, but I wouldn’t automatically take a short price about him when Humphries is a credible alternative.
At 5/1 or bigger, with a draw I’m happy with, I’d be interested. If he’s much shorter or lands in a particularly difficult section, I’m happy to leave him alone.
Bet 2: Jonny Clayton to reach the final
Target price: 6/1 or bigger
Provisional stake: 0.5 point win
Clayton is the recent-form angle, and I quite like the idea of looking at the finalist market rather than asking him to win the whole thing.
His Swiss Darts Trophy victory was a proper performance. He opened with a 108.81 average against Maik Kuivenhoven, then beat Rob Cross, Karel Sedlacek and Gian van Veen before defeating Humphries in the final.
That’s a strong weekend against serious opposition. The 108.81 was one match, so I’m not treating it as his normal level, but the results across the tournament give the performance more substance.
The issue is that everybody has now seen it. We don’t want to pay a premium simply because he lifted a trophy last weekend.
I’d want 6/1 or bigger to reach the final, and I’d need to see his half of the draw first. This is a smaller bet for me, but there’s enough in that recent form to keep him firmly on the shortlist.
Bet 3: Ross Smith to win the tournament each way
Target price: 20/1 or bigger
Terms required: Half the odds, two places
Provisional stake: 0.5 point each way, 1 point total
For a bigger-priced selection, Ross Smith is the one I’d investigate.
He’s already won this tournament. In the 2022 final, he beat Michael Smith 11–8, averaged 101.32, hit eight 180s and finished at 50%. That’s a proper performance under pressure, rather than somebody falling over the line.
Of course, that was four years ago. I wouldn’t back him on that alone.
The more relevant point is that he has already secured the top seeding for this year’s event, leading the European Tour rankings with £153,000 after 14 tournaments. His wins at the International Darts Open and Hungarian Darts Trophy give us current-season evidence alongside the tournament history.
Top seed doesn’t mean easy draw, so I still want to see who is in his section. But if the market concentrates heavily on the usual names and leaves Smith at 20/1 or bigger, he’s worth a closer look.
The each-way terms matter here. Half the odds for reaching the final is the basis of this angle. If the bookmaker offers less generous terms, I’d reassess it rather than take the same bet regardless.